The Washington Examiner’s insightful David Drucker filmed a debriefing segment Friday with Sarah Westwood in which he discussed the effect that the likely overturning of the Roe v. Wade abortion decision will have on the 2022 election. He noted that strategists from both parties are unusually open about their ignorance. The consequences are much less predictable than most run-of-the-mill political happenings.
Drucker quoted one Democratic operative as stating, “If anybody thinks they know exactly what’s going to happen, then they don’t know what they’re talking about.”
He is probably right. Personally, I doubt that Roe will save Democrats, just based on the history. In the last 15 years since the Gonzales v. Carhart decision weakened Roe, the issue never has bolstered the Democrats. Republicans have been passing restrictive state-level abortion laws, and Democrats have often (most recently in 2021 in the Virginia governor’s race) tried unsuccessfully to campaign against them. In every case I’m aware of, exit polling has shown that efforts to make abortion a big campaign issue motivate pro-life voters more than they motivate the other side. As Mark Shields used to observe after presidential elections, there is usually a modest net benefit to the pro-life candidate when abortion becomes the issue. Read more…