The Washington Post recently released a poll in collaboration with ABC that depicted former President Donald Trump with a 10-point lead over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election matchup. According to the poll, Trump leads Biden 52% to 42%. However, the Washington Post itself acknowledged that its poll’s significant margin and the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in the survey might render it an outlier, especially when compared to other polls showing a closer race.
The ABC/Post poll also noted that Trump had gained 3 points, while Biden had lost 2 points since a poll conducted in February, deeming these changes not statistically significant. Despite these shifts, the overall margin remained substantial in favor of Trump.
The poll revealed a noteworthy level of dissatisfaction among Democrats regarding the prospect of Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, with 3 in 5 Democrat and Democrat-leaning independents expressing a preference for someone else. However, there was no clear consensus among respondents on an alternative candidate, with the most popular choice being “just someone else.” Vice President Kamala Harris and Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont both garnered 8% of the vote as potential alternatives.
In terms of Trump’s presidency, the poll showed that 48% of respondents retrospectively approved of his presidency, while 49% disapproved. This approval rating for Trump marked a significant shift from his low 38% approval rating in January 2021, following the events of January 6th, and tied for the highest approval point in the history of the Washington Post-ABC poll regarding Trump’s presidency.
The poll, conducted from September 15th to 20th, surveyed a sample size of 1,006 randomly selected adults, contacted via landlines and cell phones, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. The Washington Post’s acknowledgment of the potential outlier status of its poll underlines the importance of considering multiple polls and factors when evaluating the political landscape.