Polymarket, billed as “the world’s largest prediction market,” is currently favoring former President Donald Trump with a 93 percent chance of securing the Republican nomination for president, signaling a strong position within the party. This prediction is notably higher than Republican contenders like Nikki Haley, who, with a meager four percent chance, faces an uphill battle in securing the nomination. The market allocates one percent each to entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, both of whom have aligned themselves with Trump.
Interestingly, the prediction market paints a less optimistic picture for President Joe Biden within his party, assigning him a 78 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. Competitors like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former First Lady Michelle Obama receive eight percent and seven percent chances, respectively, while Vice President Kamala Harris is assigned four percent. The remaining two percent is reserved for other potential candidates. Overall, Polymarket suggests a 78 percent likelihood of a Trump vs. Biden rematch, with a notable 27 percent chance of Biden withdrawing from the presidential race.
Looking ahead to a hypothetical 2024 general election, Polymarket predicts a 54 percent chance of Trump emerging victorious against Biden, who is assigned a 33 percent likelihood. The market also factors in possibilities for other candidates, with Michelle Obama at six percent, Newsom at three percent, and a two percent chance for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
These predictions align with Trump’s robust performance in recent polls, particularly in South Carolina’s GOP primary, where he consistently leads Haley by a significant margin. National surveys also indicate Trump’s advantage over Biden, not only nationally but also in key swing states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The projections underscore Trump’s enduring influence within the Republican Party and his competitive standing in potential election scenarios.