A recent Fox News survey released Wednesday has unveiled compelling findings suggesting that if the 2024 presidential election were held today, former President Donald Trump would not only surpass President Joe Biden but also outperform several other Democrats rumored to potentially replace the incumbent president. Among registered voters, the poll indicates Trump leading Biden by a margin of 50% to 46%.
Furthermore, in hypothetical head-to-head matchups, the poll positions Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 50% to 45%, California Governor Gavin Newsom by 49% to 45%, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer by 48% to 46%, and outgoing West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin by 47% to 46%.
In the national Republican primary, the survey highlights Trump’s substantial lead, securing 62% support, which is a staggering 49 percentage points ahead of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 13%. Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley emerges as the sole other GOP candidate to reach double digits, polling at 10%.
The poll also explores scenarios where either DeSantis or Haley manages to surpass Trump in winning the Republican nomination. In such cases, the survey suggests they would both defeat Biden in the election, with DeSantis leading Biden 50% to 45% and Haley enjoying an 11 percentage-point lead at 52% to 41%.
Biden faces disapproval among various demographic groups, including men (63%), voters under 45 (62%), Hispanics (60%), college-educated voters (57%), and notably, more than two-fifths of black voters (41%).
In a hypothetical matchup between Biden and Haley, the poll depicts Haley leading among women (49%), voters under 35 (46%), voters over 65 (56%), independents (65%), white college graduates (54%), and self-described moderates (51%).
Although Biden and Haley are tied among suburban women at 47%, Haley leads among self-described independents by 43 percentage points and among white college graduates by 9 percentage points.
Trump exhibits a 16-point advantage over Biden among independents but trails him by five points among white college graduates. Compared to three years ago, Trump has experienced increased support among independents (21 percentage points), black voters (15 percentage points), Hispanics (13 percentage points), and suburban voters (eight percentage points).
Currently, Biden maintains a 41% approval rating, while 59% disapprove. Trump holds a 44% favorable rating with a 56% unfavorable rating. Harris, on the other hand, registered her lowest approval ratings yet, with 38% approving and 59% disapproving.
The Fox News poll, conducted from November 10-13 in collaboration with Beacon Research (a Democratic pollster) and Shaw & Company Research (a GOP pollster), surveyed 1,001 registered voters nationwide. The margin of error was ±3 percentage points for registered voters, ±4.5 percentage points for Republican primary voters, and ±5 percentage points for Democratic primary voters.